The Science Behind A/B Test Sample Sizes: How to Avoid Statistical Errors

One of the most essential yet overlooked aspects of A/B testing is sample size. The right sample size helps ensure the results of the test are statistically significant and not a product of random choice. With a very small test sample, important differences between variations might be missed. Whereas, a very large sample size might detect trivial differences, not practically significant.

What is sample size in A/B testing?

Sample size is the number of participants or observations you choose the include in an A/B test. It is important to choose the sample size meticulously to get statistically significant and reliable test results. It allows businesses to make meaningful decisions based on the outcomes of the test. 

Choosing the right sample size for A/B testing your website can help avoid errors. The right sample size also makes the test results accurate. It becomes easier to identify real differences between variations, mitigating the risk of false negatives. 

The right sample size increases the confidence level in the test results. Additionally, the duration of the test is also important. Here are a few other things to keep in mind: 

  • The sample size determines the duration of the test. The larger the sample, the longer should be the test. 
  • A short test can lead to misleading conclusions. 
  • On the other hand, if the testing time is too long, external factors might hamper the results. 

Common mistakes in A/B test sample size calculation

The right sample size is very important for A/B tests. It gives accurate and reliable test results. However, there are some mistakes that businesses are making. 

Here are a few errors commonly made and how you can avoid them: 

Mistake 1: Stopping the tests too early 

Many companies make the common mistake of stopping the test too soon. Businesses observe an early trend in data and assume it is enough to conclude testing. However, often, short-term trends do not reflect long-term user behavior, leading to misleading conclusions. 

How to avoid it: 

  • Determine the required sample size before you start testing. 
  • Let the test run for the full duration, even if you notice a trend in the beginning. 
  • In case early stopping is required, you can employ sequential testing methods. 

Mistake 2: Testing with too few visitors 

A split test with very few observations can give unreliable results. Small sample sizes increase variability, making it difficult to detect differences between variations. These results are influenced by random chance, leading to inconsistent results. The results become less trustworthy, and the chances of getting false negatives are very high. 

How to avoid it: 

  • Use a proper A/B test sample size calculator to find the required sample size. 
  • Ensure the data you collect has statistical significance before you make decisions. 
  • Refer to previous data to gauge reasonable traffic expectations. 

Mistake 3: Ignoring statistical significance

Businesses should have 95% or higher confidence that the difference observed between A and B is not because of random chance. You can use keys like conversion rate, revenue engagement, etc., to measure the response of your audience. If you make decisions based on low-confidence results, it can lead to wrong decisions. 

How to avoid it: 

  • Determine a confidence level you want to reach before you start the test. 
  • Don’t declare results until you reach statistical significance. 
  • You can use a statistical significance calculator to ensure the results are reliable.

Mistake 4: Overlooking effect size 

Effect size is the magnitude of the difference between the results of two variants. Sometimes, the A/B test results might detect a small but statistically significant effect. It's on you to identify whether it is important enough to make any changes according to it and whether the cost and effect of implementation are justifiable. 

How to avoid it: 

  • Define a minimum detectable effect (MDE) - which is the smallest difference worth acting upon before running the test. 
  • Make sure the changes you are implementing are not only statistically significant but also meaningful for the business. 

How to calculate the right sample size for an A/B test

The simplest way to calculate the correct sample size is to use an A/B test sample size calculator. It is very easy to use and automates the statistical calculations, ensuring accurate results without much effort. 

You simply need to enter the required fields like baseline conversion rate, minimum detectable rate, desired confidence level, etc. The Optibase calculator will find the necessary sample size.

Sample size calculation formula:

The formula for calculating the sample size is as follows: 

n = [Z^2 x p x (1-p)]/E^2

Here: 

n = the needed sample size 

Z = constant value set for the desired confidence level

p = baseline conversion rate 

E = MDE

Best practices for running A/B tests with the correct sample size

Let’s talk about some of the best practices important for getting reliable results and making decisions with confidence: 

  • Pre-calculate sample size before starting the test

Before you start the split testing for your business, decide on the sample size. Choosing the right number of observations ensures that your results are meaningful. Use an A/B test sample size calculator to find the number of visitors you need. Also, avoid adjusting the sample size between the tests. 

  • Allow the test to run for a full statistical cycle 

It is tempting to peek into the A/B test results to see which variant is performing better. However, small test durations can increase the chances of unreliable results. Stick to a duration that will provide statistical significance between variants. The test should run for at least 2 to 6 weeks, depending on the website traffic and MDE. 

  • Monitor data without stopping too soon 

A big mistake businesses make is they declare a winner when one variant appears to perform well in the early stages of the test. This can lead to false positives and false negatives. Wait till you have enough data to make an informed decision. 

  • Consider seasonality and traffic variability 

Don’t forget factors like seasonality or ongoing marketing campaigns, which can influence user behavior and skew your results. It is important to account for these factors. Including these variables in your calculations can help ensure that your conclusions are solid. 

Conclusion 

Every business is trying to develop content that resonates with its audience. The best way to do so is A/B testing. It allows you to gauge which variant of your product is liked by your audience. Rather than randomly setting a sample size, using an A/B test sample size calculator will give you a clear idea as to how many visitors you need to make an informed decision. 

Frequently asked questions

How do I calculate the sample size for an A/B test? 

You can use a sample size calculator like Optibase to find the right sample size. You can also manually calculate it using the formula listed above. 

What happens if my sample size is too small? 

If the sample size is too small, the chances of randomness increase. This deteriorates the decisions made, negatively impacting the business. With a smaller sample size, there is also the problem of considering small variations which are not significant. 

Does Optibase automatically calculate sample sizes for webflow A/B tests? 

No, Optibase does not automatically calculate the sample size of split testing. However, you can use our calculator to input the details of your business and it will generate the required sample size.